Whether to rent or buy comes down mostly to how long you will stay. Nationally, buying a typical home recently took about six years to beat renting, according to Zillow, but that ranges from about four years in some Midwest metros to never within 30 years in the priciest ones like San Francisco.
Rent vs buy is not a personality test. It is two leases on the same future: one you renew with a landlord, one you sign with a lender and a maintenance budget. This is for people stuck in abstract arguments who need both paths on one timeline.
You will compare cash out the door, buffers, and flexibility across a few years, then see which lease fits the life you are actually living.
Rent at $2,100 a month is a lease with a clear exit and no roof fund. Buying a $425,000 place with 10% down might mean a $2,650 mortgage payment plus taxes, insurance, and a maintenance reserve. The second lease often costs more each month at the start. It also builds equity and locks you into a location and a repair schedule. Same years of your life. Different contracts with the future.
Internet fights skip the boring inputs. Closing costs of $12,000. A rate that only works if you stay seven years. HOA fees. The opportunity cost of tying $42,500 in a down payment that could have stayed liquid. Put those on the buy lease or you are comparing fantasies.
The rent lease needs honesty too. Assume renewals. A $100 bump each year changes year five a lot. Include renters insurance and the savings rate you can keep because you are not funding a water heater. Rent is not “throwing money away” if the alternative empties your buffer.
Horizon matters more than slogans. If you might move within three years, renting usually wins on cost alone, since closing and selling costs have no time to spread out. Planting for a decade in one school district changes the math. Pick the years first, then run both contracts across them.
Build two projections with the same income and the same non-housing life. On path A, rent steps up modestly and you keep investing the difference if the buy path costs more monthly. On path B, include mortgage, taxes, insurance, HOA, and a maintenance reserve of about 1% of home value per year (some planners use 0.5%; older homes often need more). Then compare cash, runway, and net worth at year three, five, and ten.
Example: buy costs $700 more per month all-in than rent in year one. If you rent and invest that $700, you may beat thin equity early on. If you stay twelve years and principal paydown stacks, the buy lease can pull ahead. Neither result is universal. The projection is how you stop arguing in slogans.
Stress the buy path with a repair year. A $8,000 HVAC hit in year two should show up as a cash event, not a surprise that raids the emergency fund you forgot to rebuild after closing. Stress the rent path with a move. Two months of overlapping rent and deposits is a real cost of flexibility.
If the buy lease only works by draining runway below three months, you are not ready for that contract yet. Saving a larger down payment or waiting out a rate can be the move. Delaying is still a projection choice, not a moral failing.
Illustrative net position (same city, same horizon)
Flan lets you keep two projections side by side: one with rent, one with a home purchase and ongoing ownership costs. Life events and big purchases sit on the timeline so you can see which lease fits the next stretch of years.
Rent vs buy is two leases on the same future. Put both on a timeline with real costs and a real stay length. Pick the contract that fits those years.
Once both paths are visible, the argument gets shorter. That is enough. Already on a loan and wondering what extra principal does to the payoff date? Read Extra principal moves the pin. For the full cost of a purchase this size, see What a big purchase costs, and check the buffer left after closing with Months of runway.
Run your own numbers with the free mortgage payment calculator: Free mortgage calculator: see P&I, cash leaving with escrow, and how much earlier a steady extra principal payment clears the loan.
Flan is planning software, not a bank, broker, or licensed advisor. Nothing here is financial, tax, or legal advice.
Read more Flan Files at theflan.app/blog.
